Dodge City’s possible landing spots for 6A Playoffs

The Dodge City Red Demons have played their way to a 4-3 record ahead of the final week of regular season play. They will play on the road against Wichita East (5-2) in a game that could have major implications on where they will be seeded for the class 6A playoffs. A win could see the Demons go as high as the No. 4 seed in 6A West, while a loss could bump them all the way down to the No. 10 seed.

The current 6A West standings show a defined top three (Derby, Manhattan and Wichita Northwest) along with a bottom six that it would be unlikely for any team to break out of, even if it is possible. Dodge City is not in either of those categories, as they find themselves in the middle of the pack, along with six other schools. The full standings can be found with this link, but here is a look how each of the middle of the pack schools stack up heading into the last week of regular season play:

4. Wichita East (5-2) Average point differential: 7.29. Next game: vs Dodge City

5. Dodge City (4-3) Average point differential: 1.86 Next game: @Wichita East

6. Wichita South (4-3) Average point differential: 2.00 Next game: vs Wichita West (2-5)

7. Topeka High (4-3) Average point differential: 1.86 Next game: @Pittsburg (5-2)

8. Junction City: (3-4) Average point differential: -1.43 Next game: @Emporia (0-7)

9. Maize: (3-4) Average point differential: -0.57 Next game: vs Salina South (1-6)

10. Washburn Rural: (3-4) Average point differential: -1.86 Next game: @ Manhattan (7-0)

With a guarantee that some schools will be tied with the same record, it is important to highlight that the head-to-head match ups will be the first way to break ties, followed by the point differential average. The minimum or maximum difference in a game 13, meaning that some teams sit in the exact same spot.

Both Dodge City and Topeka have not played in a game played within 13 points, and they also have the same 4-3 record. Dodge City is above Topeka because they beat Wichita South earlier in the season, who has the same record, and therefore Dodge City is on top of all of the 4-3 teams. That is how it would shake out if the playoffs started today, and is just an example of how the system works as it is not likely that those three teams remain tied and no one else joins them with the same record.

There is a likelihood that none of these upcoming scenarios are relevant come late Friday night when the bracket is being made, as an unlikely upset could throw a wrinkle in this entire section of the standings, but here are some of the most notable and likely ways the standings could shake out for the Demons.

Best Case Scenario: Beat Wichita East, claim the No.4 seed.

The point differential will not matter for Dodge City if they can find a way to win on Friday night. That would give them a record that is tied with Wichita East, which no matter what happens with Wichita South against Wichita West or with Topeka against Emporia, the Demons would have the head-to-head wins over both East and South would put them at the top of the 6-2 teams and give them the No. 4 seed.

Worst Case Scenario: Loss to Wichita East by 13 or more.

A loss to Wichita East by 13 or more opens up the possibility of the Demons dropping all the way down to the No. 10 seed. Dropping clear down to the No. 10 is unlikely, as it would take Washburn Rural beating undefeated Manhattan by 13 to force a coin flip.

However, dropping down to the No. 9 seed is pretty likely to happen if the Demons lose to Wichita East. Maize and Junction City will be likely winners over Salina South and Emporia respectively, and they both have a loss that was played within 13 points and won all of their games by more than 13. If Dodge City, Maize and Junction City are the three teams tied with a 4-4 record, Dodge City be the last of them and drop down to No. 9.

With Topeka playing a somewhat unpredictable 5-2 Pittsburg team, a 13-point loss to them would drop them down to an even tie with Dodge City and then it would start to getting close to coin flip territory for the No. 8 seed.

Best case scenario for a 13 point loss:

A 13 point loss would hurt the Demons a lot less if Wichita South were to lose to Wichita West. However, the Pioneers (2-5) have not beat a team that has won a game this year and just lost to Wichita Southeast in what was their first win of the season. This scenario is extremely unlikely, but would put Dodge City on top of the 4-4 teams because of their head-to-head win over Wichita South.

Topeka would need to beat Pittsburg, because Junction City has the head-to-head over them in order to make Dodge City the No. 6 seed.

Playing for points:

Dodge City could lose to Wichita East by just nine points and be in front of Junction City on point differential, and a loss by three points would put them in front of Maize as well.

Junction City’s big win:

Junction City can override point differential a long way toward the top with their win over Topeka on Oct. 11 if Topeka were to lose to Pittsburg. They will be hoping for a Topeka loss the same way Dodge City will be hoping for a Wichita South loss, so that they can be the top team of the 4-4 teams.

The reality:

With only two real toss-ups in play (Dodge City vs Wichita East and Topeka vs Pittsburg), it is looking like the difference between Dodge City hosting the first two rounds of the playoffs with the No. 4 seed and going on the road for the first round is just 14 points on Friday night.