FAPRI Updates Baseline for U.S. Ag Markets

The University of Missouri’s Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute released its 2024 Baseline Update for U.S. agricultural markets. Increased supplies, a strong dollar, and several other factors have caused prices for multiple agricultural commodities to fall sharply from their 2022 peak levels. In the absence of new shocks to the weather, the macro-economy, or policy, projected prices will generally remain near current levels for the next five years.

Some of the key results in the update include increased acreage and large yields that will mean a record 2024 U.S. soybean crop. Despite a significant jump in crush and a rebound in exports, end-of-year stocks will increase sharply. Record yield will result in the second consecutive 15 billion bushel corn crop this year. Given the projected reduction in prices for a broad range of crops and moderating production costs, there’s little incentive to sharply change crop acreage allocation in 2025.